The Spring Slide May 24, 2012

It has been 410 years since the first initial public offering (IPO). The Dutch East India Company helped people add spice to their daily lives, connect to those in faraway places, and became the richest company the world had ever seen. High hopes for similar success surrounded the Facebook IPO on Friday. However, the long-awaited IPO was unable to spur enthusiasm among stock market investors. Stocks posted the worst week in six months as the S&P 500 fell 4.3%, making three straight weeks of declines culminating in an 8.7% decline from this year’s peak in April.

In each of the past two years, the stock market began a slide in the spring, a phenomenon often referred to by the old adage “sell in May and go away,” which lasted well into the summer months. In both 2010 and 2011, an early run-up in the stock market, similar to this year, pushed stocks up about 10% for the year by mid-April. On April 23, 2010 and April 29, 2011, the S&P 500 made peaks that were followed by 16–19% losses that were not recouped for more than five months. On March 26, we published the 10 indicators that warned of another Spring Slide this year but noted that this year’s decline may not be as steep as in the prior years. Now that the Spring Slide is in full swing, we have to watch out for the big event with the potential to make it as severe as the past two years.

A combination of factors contributed to the reversal in direction for the stock market, including an extended and exhausted rally, a slowdown in the economy, and weakening earnings outlooks. But what added fuel to the decline in 2010 was the negative environment that included the end of the Fed’s QE1 stimulus program, the uncertainty around the impact of the Dodd-Frank legislation, the passage of the Affordable Care Act, the Eurozone debt problems and bailouts, central bank rate hikes, and the end of the homebuyer tax credit. In 2011, the negatives that helped drive the slide further included the end of the Fed’s QE2 stimulus program, the Japan earthquake and nuclear disaster that disrupted global supply chains and pulled Japan into a recession, the Arab Spring erupted pushing up oil prices, rising inflation, central bank rate hikes, the Eurozone debt problems coming to a head, and, most importantly, the budget debacle and related downgrade of U.S. Treasuries.

Looking ahead, the negatives we face in 2012 already include the end of the Fed’s Operation Twist stimulus program, China’s slowdown, the European recession, geopolitical risks, the election uncertainty, and anticipation of the 2013 budget bombshell of tax hikes and spending cuts. However, some positives this year may help offset some of the negatives, making for a potential decline that may be less steep than those of the past two years.

• First, central banks are now cutting rather than hiking rates, which should help to temper global recession fears evident during the past two years’ Spring Slides. For example, China has cut reserve requirements three times in the past six months.

• Second, housing is showing signs of improvement, as both new and existing home sales are rising at a 5–7% pace, and home prices are now on the rise.

• Third, gasoline and food prices are decelerating, which helps to explain why consumer sentiment has been rising along with retail sales in May despite the market decline.

• Finally, auto production schedules are robust for the next quarter and likely to support manufacturing activity, which had fallen in May through July of the past two years and contributed to the market decline.

We will be on the lookout for signs that the Spring Slide may be as steep as the past couple of years. However, we will also be preparing our shopping list to take advantage of this broad pullback in the markets as it runs its course.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance reference is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Stock investing may involve risk including loss of principal.

Investing in specialty market and sectors carry additional risks such as economic, political or regulatory developments that may affect many or all issuers in that sector.

Quantitative Easing is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.

The mention of individual companies noted herein is not for a recommendation to buy or sell the company nor the products and services they provide. We do offer any opinions or analysis on individual securities.

The Federal Open Market Committee action known as Operation Twist began in 1961. The intent was to flatten the yield curve in order to promote capital inflows and strengthen the dollar. The Fed utilized open market operations to shorten the maturity of public debt in the open market. The action has subsequently been reexamined in isolation and found to have been more effective than originally thought. As a result of this reappraisal, similar action has been suggested as an alternative to quantitative easing by central banks.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC

Look Who’s Buying and Selling May 16, 2012

We devote this commentary each week to assessing the many reasons markets may rise or fall. But at the heart of it, all markets come down to just one thing: buyers and sellers. Taking a look at who is buying and who is selling can tell us something about the durability of the market’s performance and what may lie ahead.

Presently, there are four notable trends in buying and selling in the stock market. U.S. stocks are being purchased by foreigners and corporations while selling is coming from individuals and insiders, or top executives, of companies.

Foreigners are Buying

Purchases of U.S. stocks by foreigners in the first quarter of 2012 shows that demand by foreigners has rebounded from the uncharacteristic selling that took place in the second half of last year. Net purchases of U.S. stocks by foreigners in the first quarter totaled about $10 billion, according to the U.S. Treasury.

Companies Are Buying Back Shares

After taking advantage of the market rebound in 2009, corporations issued shares in 2010. However, since then they have returned to near record levels of net share repurchases.

Corporations have become net buyers of shares as rising cash flow and wide profit margins compel them to shrink their share count to boost earnings-per-share as revenue growth slows.

Individual Investors are Selling

Individual investors have been net sellers, measured by the flows of mutual funds that invest in U.S. stocks. They have been selling for 12 straight months. During the past 12 months, investors in these funds have sold more than they did during 2008.

Individual investors as a group wield far more buying power and influence over the marketplace. When individual investors make up their minds, they can be a powerful and durable force in the markets.

Insiders are Selling

Selling by insiders, or top executives, of companies has been well above average. As of the latest week, according to data tracked by Argus Research of the number of shares insiders have sold and those that they have bought on the NYSE, the sell-to-buy ratio was 7.1-to-1.0 This is a historically high level of insider selling.

Should this data be seen as an important signal by those “in the know” of impending doom for corporate America ? History offers a very different interpretation. Corporate insiders were buying in 2007 at the peak, and they were selling in 2009 as stocks were bottoming. Back in August of 2007, around the peak of the stock market, insiders at Financial companies were doing the most buying in 12 years. At the time, this trend was interpreted by some as a buy signal for Financials just before the companies in this sector fell more than 80%. Given this track record, we do not interpret the insider selling as a signal of impending losses. This fact does not suggest that they are acting on any inside information that would benefit an individual investor and instead may be selling in response to a three year bull market that doubled the value of the overall stock market.

Projecting the Trends

We expect foreigners and companies to continue to be net buyers while insiders remain sellers in the coming quarters. Fuel for a new bull market would most likely have to come from individual investors. One of the trends powering bond prices higher, and yields lower, is the strong demand from individuals as they continue to shift their investments from stocks to bonds.

The potential for money to flow into the stock market and lift stocks is significant. However, individual investors must first become disillusioned with bonds. Since bonds have offered returns over the past thirty years that are competitive with stocks and provided much lower volatility, many are reallocating their portfolios toward bonds as they seek to provide for a comfortable retirement. It may take a period of rising interest rates from near historic lows to demonstrate the potential for losses and volatility that bond investors in the late 1960s and throughout the 1970s experienced to reverse the individual investor money flows back to stocks.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance reference is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Stock investing may involve risk including loss of principal.

Investing in mutual funds involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Investments in specialized industry sectors have additional risks, which are outlined in the prospectus.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values and yields will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

Investing in specialty market and sectors carry additional risks such as economic, political or regulatory developments that may affect many or all issuers in that sector.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC

Spring Slide Indicators Update May 2, 2012

One month ago we provided our list of the 10 indicators to watch that seemed to precede the stock market declines in 2010 and 2011 and may warn of another spring slide. In both 2010 and 2011 an early run-up in the stock market, similar to this year, pushed stocks up about 10% for the year by mid-April. On April 23, 2010 and April 29, 2011, the S&P 500 made peaks that were followed by 16-19% losses that were not recouped for more than five months, a phenomenon often referred to by the old adage “sell in May and go away.” Now that the time the prior slides have begun has arrived it is time to revisit the status of the indicators.

So far, about half of the 10 indicators are waving a red flag, while four are yellow for caution, and only one is green. On balance the indicators point to a significant risk of a repeat of the spring slide this year. We will continue to monitor these closely in the coming weeks.

1.    Fed stimulus – In each of the past two years, Federal Reserve (Fed) stimulus programs known as QE1 & QE2 came to an end in the spring or summer, and stocks began to slide until the next program was announced. The current program known as Operation Twist was announced on September 12, 2011 and is coming to an end. It is scheduled to conclude at the end of June 2012. The Fed’s communications in April appeared no closer to announcing QE3, raising the risk of a repeat of the spring slide.

2.    Economic surprises – The Citigroup Economic Surprise index measures how economic data fares compared with economists’ expectations. The currently falling line suggests expectations have become too high; this typically coincides with a falling stock market relative to the safe haven of 10-year Treasuries.

*The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is an unmanaged index, which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

3.    Consumer confidence – In 2010 and 2011, early in the year the daily tracking of consumer confidence measured by Rasmussen rose to highs just before the stock market collapse as the financial crisis erupted. The peak in optimism gave way to a sell-off as buying faded. Investor net purchases of domestic equity mutual funds began to plunge and turned sharply negative in the following months. This measure of confidence is once again beginning to fall from the highs.

*The Rasmussen Daily Consumer Confidence Index is an unmanaged index, which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

4.    Earnings revisions – Last week was about earnings and the news was good. S&P 500 profits were up 7% (4.7% ex-Apple) from a year ago with 72% of companies beating expectations, relative to 68% in the past four quarters. However, strong first quarter earnings reported in April of 2010 and 2011 were not enough to avoid the spring slide. The first couple of weeks of the first quarter earnings season in April 2010 and April 2011 drove earnings estimates for the next 12 months higher, but as the second half of the earnings season got underway in May 2010 and May 2011, guidance disappointed analysts and investors as the pace of upward revisions began to decline. This year the earning revisions have followed a similar pattern, so far. It is too early to say whether this indicator is flashing a warning sign. We will be watching to see if estimates begin to taper off now that earnings expectations have risen on the initial reports.

5.    Yield curve – In general, the greater the difference between the yield on the 2-year and the 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, the more growth the market is pricing into the economy. This yield spread, sometimes called the yield curve because of how steep or flat it looks when the yield for each maturity is plotted on a chart, peaked in February of 2010 and 2011 at 2.9%. Then the curve started to flatten, suggesting a gradually increasing concern about the economy, as the yield on the 10-year moved down to around 2%. This year the market is pricing a more modest outlook for growth, but we will be watching to see if the recent flattening in the yield curve continues with the yield on the 10-year having moved back to 2% during April 2012.

6.    Oil prices – In 2010 and 2011, oil prices rose about $15-20 from around the start of February, two months before the stock market began to decline. This year oil prices have climbed back to the levels around $105 that they reached in April of last year. However, they have risen only about $10 since around the start of February 2012 and seem to have stabilized. A further surge in oil prices would make this indicator more worrisome.

7.    The LPL Financial Current Conditions Index (CCI) – In 2010 and 2011, our index of 10 real-time economic and market conditions peaked around the 240-250 level in April and began to fall by over 50 points. This year, the CCI recently reached 249 and has started to weaken and currently stands at 224.

8.    The VIX – In each of the past two years the VIX, an options-based measure of the forecast for volatility in the stock market, fell to a low around 15 in April before ultimately spiking up over 40 over the summer. Last week, the VIX declined once again to 16. This suggests investors have again become complacent and risk being surprised by a negative event or data.

9.    Initial jobless claims – It was evident that initial filings for unemployment benefits had halted their improvement by early April 2010, and beginning in early April 2011, they deteriorated sharply. In 2012, April has again led to deterioration in initial jobless claims as they have jumped by about 30,000 to nearly 390,000. A continued climb this week would echo last year’s spike.

10.    Inflation expectations – The University of Michigan consumer survey reflected a rise in inflation expectations in March and April of the past two years. In fact, in 2011, the one-year inflation outlook rose to 4.6% in both March and April. This year, inflation expectations also jumped higher in March, but receded a bit from the March jump that echoed what we saw in 2010 and 2011.

Finally, one issue not addressed specifically in the indicators, but important in the markets, is the rising European stresses – evident in the spring of 2010 and 2011. European policymakers including those at the European Central Bank, who meet later this week (May 3, 2012), have been facing a lot of pressure to act and do something about the renewed fears evident in the yields on Spanish and Italian debt and European stocks. European leaders have once again refocused away from unpopular austerity to talk of stimulating growth, at the expense of rising bond yields. If leaders continue to do little to address the market’s concerns it could again accelerate the bond market sell-off and begin to affect stocks here in the U.S. similar to the spring slides in 2010 and 2011.

This week most of the attention will be directed towards the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and employment reports for April 2012. But as we pointed out a month ago, these measures did not deteriorate ahead of the market decline, but along with it. It is not that they are not important; it is just that they did not serve as useful warnings of the slide to come, while the above 10 indicators did.

The return of daily volatility in April 2012 and the fact that April 2012 ended up as a flat month for stocks after six months of strong gains may suggest we are near a turning point. Given this year’s double-digit gains and the possibility of another spring slide for the stock market, investors may want to watch these indicators closely for signs of a pullback.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance reference is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Stock investing may involve risk including loss of principal.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The ISM index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries. A composite diffusion index is created that monitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys.

The VIX is a measure of the volatility implied in the prices of options contracts for the S&P 500. It is a market-based estimate of future volatility. When sentiment reaches one extreme or the other, the market typically reverses course. While this is not necessarily predictive it does measure the current degree of fear present in the stock market.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC