Sentiment & Positioning January 28, 2014

A widely expected move higher in bond yields has yet to materialize in 2014, and those expectations actually may help explain why yields have declined. Financial markets occasionally “zig” just when a growing majority expects a “zag.” Bonds are no exception, and many investors have been caught off guard by early 2014 bond strength. Although profit taking hit bonds on Monday, January 27, 2014, the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is still up over 1% year to date. After dropping as low as 2.71% last Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield closed Monday, January 27, 2014 at 2.76%, still 0.27% lower in just over three weeks of trading this year — a significant move.

Lopsided sentiment can often drive contrarian moves by financial markets, especially in the bond market. One indicator that captured the overwhelmingly negative sentiment on bonds was the Commitments of Traders report, which is issued weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC Commitments of Traders report includes the net positioning of speculative investors across a variety of futures contracts. Observing whether speculative investors are net long (betting on higher prices) or net short (betting on lower prices) can reveal positioning of institutional speculative investors.

In late 2013, the CFTC report showed one of the largest net short positions on record in 10-year Treasury futures, indicating that the market was expecting rates to rise. The near 200,000 net short position was a level witnessed only rarely over the past 10 years [Figure 1]. These extremes have

often coincided with contrarian rallies as evidenced by the shaded areas. As prices rise and yields decline, speculative investors scramble to cover their short positions for fear of incurring losses. The rush to exit positions can be a powerful force and, here in early 2014, the subsequent buying has helped propel the bond market higher.

This contrarian indicator can help explain pullbacks as well. The buildup of long positions in early 2013 to some of the highest levels of the past few years coincided with the 2013 bond pullback and rise in yields.

At the same time, the indicator is not foolproof, and a significant net long position prior to the 2007 – 08 financial crisis coincided with a long decline in yields. In addition, the CFTC data are released with a slight lag meaning sentiment may have shifted, but it does help explain market moves. The CFTC report is just one tool to assess sentiment that may be offside and a lead to a contrarian move in the markets, but it needs to be evaluated in conjunction with other data.

Positioning

Positioning of short-term speculators is far from the only factor driving bond prices, and investor positioning appeared to corroborate the negative sentiment at the start of the year. The firm Stone & McCarthy Research Associates conducts a survey of bond investors to assess whether they are positioned short, neutral, or long relative to their broad benchmarks. A short or long bias would reveal investor expectations of rising or falling interest rates, respectively. In mid-January, Stone & McCarthy’s survey revealed investors on average were at 96.6% of their target interest rate sensitivity, or duration, the most defensive reading since the third quarter of 2008.

As bond prices rise and interest rates fall, defensively positioned investors may see their portfolios likely lag benchmark performance. Investors then would likely buy to get closer to their benchmark in order to limit underperformance to a benchmark. Bond buys to get portfolios closer to neutral may have aided bonds in early 2014.

When coupled with fundamental drivers, positioning and sentiment can be a potent combination. In early January 2014, a weaker-than-expected employment report sparked questions about the strength of the economy and bonds rallied, setting in motion a buying spree as wrong-footed investors reversed bets on lower bond prices. Pension investors also took advantage of yields near two-and-a-half-year highs and also gave bond prices a boost to start 2014 (please see blog post Why Own Bonds? 1/21/14 for more details).

Recent momentum was aided by a host of emerging market (EM) issues spurring buys of higher-quality assets like Treasuries. Weaker-than-expected economic growth from China, Turkey’s central bank’s attempt to stabilize its currency, political instability in the Ukraine, and Argentine currency devaluation all contributed to US Treasury demand.

EM currency fears appear contained for now, however, with no signs of disruption in domestic intra-bank lending markets. The TED spread, a key gauge of inter-bank lending pressures during the 2007 – 08 financial crisis and several times during the European debt fears of recent years, has served as an early warning signal but is near a post-recession low for now [Figure 2], indicating no global contagion from EM currency weakness.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Although EM concerns may support high-quality bonds during the current week, the offside positioning in the bond market has been largely reversed. Figure 1 illustrates that while speculators may still be net short, positioning is much closer to neutral and away from an extreme. The most recent J.P. Morgan investor duration survey shows fewer participants “short” and a greater number now “neutral.”

This suggests that the fuel for additional price gains will likely need to come from fundamental data. The preponderance of economic data suggests the U.S. economy continues to expand near our expected pace of 3% (as measured by real gross domestic product) and that the weak employment report may have been an outlier, suggesting further bond gains may be limited. Bond investors may refocus on economic data now that positioning and sentiment appear more balanced.

Furthermore, this week’s auctions of new two-, five-, and seven-year Treasury securities may give investors pause after the recent run-up in prices. Add a Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, and a bond market breather is likely until new information is digested. The Fed is also widely expected to announce a further $10 billion reduction in bond purchases at the conclusion of Wednesday’s Fed meeting. Both factors augur for higher yield probability over the course of the year.

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values and yields will decline as interest rates rise, and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

Treasuries are marketable, fixed-interest U.S. government debt securities. Treasury bonds make interest payments semi-annually, and the income that holders receive is only taxed at the federal level.

Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

International and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.

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INDEX DESCRIPTIONS

The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. The index covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities.

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This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

Member FINRA/SIPC

Navigating the Markets November 26, 2013

Compass Changes

• No Changes

Investment Takeaways

• We expect the S&P 500 Index to grind higher through year-end, supported by durable U.S. economic growth, accommodative Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and earnings gains.

• Our positive small cap view reflects our U.S. focus and potential to capture further stock market gains.

• We continue to favor the more U.S.-focused, consumer-oriented sectors over the global, export-focused sectors.

• We find bond valuations roughly fair and expect yields to remain largely range-bound through year-end.

• Higher-yielding, fundamentally sound segments of the bond market such as high-yield bonds, bank loans, and preferred securities remain among the more attractive fixed income options.

• Among high-quality bonds, we favor investment-grade corporate bonds due to the potential for higher yields and good fundamentals.

• We find high-yield municipal bonds attractive, but high-quality municipal bonds possess more attractive valuations and compelling taxable-equivalent yields.

• From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 Index price continues to make new all-time highs, establishing a new bullish price objective at 1845.

Broad Asset Class Views

LPL Financial Research’s views on stocks, bonds, cash, and alternatives are illustrated below. The positions of negative, neutral, or positive are indicated by the solid black compass needle, while an outlined needle shows a previous view.

Equity & Alternative Asset Classes

Favor Small Caps for U.S. Focus Potential for Further Stock Market Gains

• We expect the S&P 500 Index to continue to grind higher over the balance of the year, supported by durable U.S. economic growth, accommodative Fed policy, and earnings gains.

• We favor small caps for their potential to capture further stock market gains.

• We favor U.S. stocks relative to emerging markets (EM) and developed foreign, as Europe struggles to grow, and the growth trajectory in several key EM countries has been uneven. The recent pickup in China’s growth is encouraging.

• We maintain a preference for growth over value due to growth’s tendency to outperform in slow-growth environments and our positive consumer discretionary view.

• We believe further downside to crude oil (WTI) may be limited in the near term from a technical perspective, though the latest inventory data and relative calm in the Middle East are bearish.

• The potential for the Fed not to taper its bond purchases until after the New Year may provide near-term support for gold.

Equity Sectors

Maintain Preference for U.S. and Consumer-Focused Cyclical Sectors

• We continue to favor the more U.S.- focused, consumer-oriented sectors over the global, export-focused sectors.

• Our consumer discretionary view remains positive as spending continues to increase, albeit modestly, and the housing recovery continues despite higher mortgage rates.

• Our financials view is neutral. We see the U.S. focus, earnings gains, and valuations as positives, although mortgage activity, fixed income trading, and regulation remain concerns.

• Our modestly positive health care view reflects our U.S. focus, robust pace of product innovation, and demand uptick from the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

• The materials sector is one to watch for a potentially more positive view due to positive technicals and evidence of a pickup in growth in China.

• We expect a potential pickup in business spending and improving growth in China to help industrials sector performance.

• We remain cautious on telecom and utilities due to their interest rate sensitivity, though telecom valuations have become more reasonable in recent months.

• Our recent downgrade in our consumer staples view was driven by above-average valuations and weakening technicals, but lower oil prices help the outlook.

Fixed Income

A New Yield Range

• We find bond valuations roughly fair and expect bond prices and yields to continue to be largely range-bound between now and year-end 2013.

• We believe intermediate maturity bonds provide a better risk/return trade-off compared to short-term bonds.

• We find high-yield municipal bonds attractive, but high-quality municipal bonds possess more attractive valuations and compelling taxable-equivalent yields.

• A modest rise in yields to start November shows the bond market remains sensitive to tapering fears, but clarity from economic data, Washington, and the Fed may take months to become evident.

• Higher-yielding, fundamentally sound segments of the bond market such as high-yield bonds, bank loans, and preferred securities remain among the more attractive fixed income options.

• Among high-quality bonds, we favor investment-grade corporate bonds due to the potential for higher yields and good fundamentals.

All performance referenced herein is as of November 19, 2013, unless otherwise noted.

Global macro strategies risk include but are not limited to imperfect knowledge of macro events, divergent movement from macro events, loss of principal, and related geopolitical risks.

Real estate/REITs may result in potential illiquidity and there is no assurance the objectives of the program will be attained. The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. International and emerging markets involve special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. The price of small and mid-cap stocks are generally more volatile than large cap stocks. Value investments can perform differently from the market as a whole. They can remain undervalued by the market for long periods of time. Precious metal investing is subject to substantial fluctuation and potential for loss. These securities may not be suitable for all investors. Alternative strategies may not be suitable for all investors and should be considered as an investment for the risk capital portion of the investor’s portfolio. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses. Stock investing may involve risk including loss of principal.

Because of their narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.

For the purposes of this publication, intermediate-term bonds have maturities between three and 10 years, and short-term bonds are those with maturities of less than three years.

All bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and are subject to availably and change in price. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Municipal interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply. Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

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DEFINITIONS:

EQUITY AND ALTERNATIVES ASSET CLASSES

Large Growth: Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as Large Cap. Growth is defined based on fast growth (high growth rates for earnings,

sales, book value, and cash flow) and high valuations (high price ratios and low dividend yields).

Large Value: Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as Large Cap. Value is defined based on low valuations (low price ratios and high dividend yields) and slow growth (low growth rates for earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow).

Mid Growth: The U.S. mid-cap range for market capitalization typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market. Growth is defined based on fast growth (high growth rates for earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow) and high valuations (high price ratios and low dividend yields).

Mid Value: The U.S. Mid Cap range for market capitalization typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market. Value is defined based on low valuations (low price ratios and high dividend yields) and slow growth (low growth rates for earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow).

Small Growth: Stocks in the bottom 10% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as Small Cap. Growth is defined based on fast growth (high growth rates for earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow) and high valuations (high price ratios and low dividend yields).

Small Value: Stocks in the bottom 10% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as Small Cap. Value is defined based on low valuations (low price ratios and high dividend yields) and slow growth (low growth rates for earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow).

U.S. Stocks: Stock of companies domiciled in the U.S.

Large Foreign: Large-cap foreign stocks have market capitalizations greater than $5 billion. The majority of the holdings in the large foreign category are in the MSCI EAFE Index.

Small Foreign: Small-cap foreign stocks typically have market capitalizations of $250M to $1B. The majority of the holdings in the small foreign category are in the MSCI Small Cap EAFE Index.

Emerging Markets: Stocks of a single developing country or a grouping of developing countries. For the most part, these countries are in Eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, the Far East and Asia.

REITs: REITs are companies that develop and manage real-estate properties. There are several different types of REITs, including apartment, factory-outlet, health-care, hotel, industrial, mortgage, office, and shopping center REITs. This would also include real-estate operating companies.

Commodities – Industrial Metals: Stocks in companies that mine base metals such as copper, aluminum and iron ore. Also included are the actual metals themselves. Industrial metals companies are typically based in North America, Australia, or South Africa.

Commodities – Precious Metals: Stocks of companies that do gold- silver-, platinum-, and base-metal-mining. Precious-metals companies are typically based in North America, Australia, or South Africa.

Commodities – Energy: Stocks of companies that focus on integrated energy, oil & gas services, oil & gas exploration and equipment. Public energy companies are typically based in North

America, Europe, the UK, and Latin America.

Merger Arbitrage is a hedge fund strategy in which the stocks of two merging companies are simultaneously bought and sold to create a riskless profit. A merger arbitrageur looks at the risk that the merger deal will not close on time, or at all. Because of this slight uncertainty, the target company’s stock will typically sell at a discount to the price that the combined company will have when the merger is closed. This discrepancy is the arbitrageur’s profit.

Long/Short is an investment strategy generally associated with hedge funds. It involves buying long equities that are expected to increase in value and selling short equities that are expected to decrease in value.

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EQUITY SECTORS

Materials: Companies that engage in a wide range of commodity-related manufacturing. Included in this sector are companies that manufacture chemicals, construction materials, glass, paper, forest products and related packaging products, metals, minerals and mining companies, including producers of steel.

Energy: Companies whose businesses are dominated by either of the following activities: The construction or provision of oil rigs, drilling equipment and other energy-related service and equipment, including seismic data collection or the exploration, production, marketing, refining and/or transportation of oil and gas products, coal and consumable fuels.

Industrials: Companies whose businesses: Manufacture and distribute capital goods, including aerospace and defense, construction, engineering and building products, electrical equipment and industrial machinery; provide commercial services and supplies, including printing, employment, environmental and office services; provide transportation services, including airlines, couriers, marine, road and rail, and transportation infrastructure.

Consumer Discretionary: Companies that tend to be the most sensitive to economic cycles. Its manufacturing segment includes automotive, household durable goods, textiles and apparel, and leisure equipment. The service segment includes hotels, restaurants and other leisure facilities, media production and services, consumer retailing and services and education services.

Technology: Companies that primarily develop software in various fields such as the Internet, applications, systems and/or database management and companies that provide information technology consulting and services. Technology hardware & equipment include manufacturers and distributors of communications equipment, computers and peripherals, electronic equipment and related instruments, and semiconductor equipment and products.

Financials: Companies involved in activities such as banking, consumer finance, investment banking and brokerage, asset management, insurance and investment, and real estate, including REITs.

Utilities: Companies considered electric, gas or water utilities, or companies that operate as independent producers and/or distributors of power.

Health Care: Companies in two main industry groups: Healthcare equipment and supplies or companies that provide healthcare-related services, including distributors of healthcare products, providers of basic healthcare services, and owners and operators of healthcare facilities and organizations or companies primarily involved in the research, development, production and marketing of pharmaceuticals and biotechnology products.

Consumer Staples: Companies whose businesses are less sensitive to economic cycles. It includes manufacturers and distributors of food, beverages and tobacco, and producers of nondurable household goods and personal products. It also includes food and drug retailing companies.

Telecommunications: Companies that provide communications services primarily through a fixed line, cellular, wireless, high bandwidth and/or fiber-optic cable network.

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FIXED INCOME

Credit Quality: An individual bond’s credit rating is determined by private independent rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch. Their credit quality designations range from high (‘AAA’ to ‘AA’) to medium (‘A’ to ‘BBB’) to low (‘BB’, ‘B’, ‘CCC’, ‘CC’ to ‘C’).

Duration: A measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of principal) of a fixed-income investment to a change in interest rates. Duration is expressed as a number of years. Rising interest rates mean falling bond prices, while declining interest rates mean rising bond prices. The bigger the duration number, the greater the interest-rate risk or reward for bond prices.

Munis – Short-term: Bonds issued by various state and local governments to fund public projects. The income from these bonds is generally free from federal taxes. These bonds generally have maturities of less than three years.

Munis – Intermediate: Bonds issued by various state and local governments to fund public projects. The income from these bonds is generally free from federal taxes. These bonds generally have maturities of between 3 and 10 years.

Munis – Long-term: Bonds issued by various state and local governments to fund public projects. The income from these bonds is generally free from federal taxes. These bonds generally have maturities of more than 10 years.

Munis – High-yield: Bonds issued by various state and local governments to fund public projects. The income from these bonds is generally free from federal taxes. These bonds generally offer higher yields than other types of bonds, but they are also more vulnerable to economic and credit risk. These bonds are rated BB+ and below.

Treasuries: A marketable, fixed-interest U.S. government debt security. Treasury bonds make interest payments semi-annually and the income that holders receive is only taxed at the federal level.

TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities): A special type of Treasury note or bond that offers protection from inflation. Like other Treasuries, an inflation-indexed security pays interest every six months and pays the principal when the security matures. The difference is that the underlying principal is automatically adjusted for inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI).

Mortgage-Backed Securities: A type of asset-backed security that is secured by a mortgage or collection of mortgages. These securities must also be grouped in one of the top two ratings as determined by a accredited credit rating agency, and usually pay periodic payments that are similar to coupon payments. Furthermore, the mortgage must have originated from a regulated and authorized financial institution.

Investment-Grade Corporates: Securities issued by corporations with a credit ratning of BBB- or higher. Bond rating firms, such as Standard & Poor’s, use different designations consisting of upper- and lower-case letters ‘A’ and ‘B’ to identify a bond’s investment-grade credit quality rating. ‘AAA’ and ‘AA’ (high credit quality) and ‘A’ and ‘BBB’ (medium credit quality) are considered investment-grade.

Preferred Stocks: A class of ownership in a corporation that has a higher claim on the assets and earnings than common stock. Preferred stock generally has a dividend that must be paid out before dividends to common stockholders and the shares usually do not have voting rights.

High-Yield Corporates: Securities issued by corporations with a credit rating of BB+ and below. These bonds generally offer higher yields than investment-grade bonds, but they are also more vulnerable to economic and credit risk.

Bank Loans: In exchange for their credit risk, these floating-rate bank loans offer interest payments that typically float above a common short-term benchmark such as the London interbank offered rate, or LIBOR.

Foreign Bonds – Hedged: Non-U.S. fixed income securities generally from investment-grade issuers in developed countries, with hedged currency exposure.

Foreign Bonds – Unhedged: Non-U.S. fixed income securities normally denominated in major foreign currencies.

Emerging Market Debt: The debt of sovereigns, agencies, local issues, and corporations of emerging markets countries and subject to currency risk.

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Preferred stock investing involves risk, which may include loss of principal.

Distressed investing involves significant risks, including a total loss of capital. The risks associated with distressed investing arise from several factors including: limited diversification, the use of leverage, limited liquidity, and the possibility that investors may be required to accept cash or securities with a value less than their original investment and/or may be required to accept payment over an extended period of time.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Quantitative easing is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.

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This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not FDIC or NCUA/NCUSIF Insured | No Bank or Credit Union Guarantee | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

Member FINRA/SIPC

Trading Partners September 3, 2013

The upward revision to second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) garnered a great deal of market attention last week (August 26 – 30, 2013). The report, released on Thursday, August 29, revealed that second quarter GDP — initially reported in late July 2013 as a 1.7% gain — was revised higher to a 2.5% gain. All of the upward revision to second quarter GDP can be explained by a narrower trade deficit. Initially, the trade deficit in the second quarter was reported as $451 billion, a 0.8% drag on overall GDP growth. Now, the revised data show that the trade gap stood at “only” 422 billion in the second quarter — the same as in the first quarter of 2013 — and as a result, the economic drag from trade for the quarter was eliminated. Looking ahead to the third quarter of 2013 and beyond, market participants and policymakers are asking: Can trade make a significant positive contribution to GDP growth in the quarters ahead, given the outlook for growth in Europe, China, Japan, and emerging markets?

Tracking the Pace of U.S. GDP Growth

While second quarter GDP was revised higher, the first quarter was not subject to revision and remained at 1.1%, leaving GDP growth in the first half of 2013 at a tepid 1.8%. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is still forecasting a 2.45% gain in GDP this year. With 1.8% growth in real GDP in the first half of the year, real GDP would have to grow by more than 3.0% in the third and fourth quarters of 2013 to match the Fed’s consensus forecast for the year. The Fed will release a revised forecast for the economy, labor markets, and inflation for 2013, 2014, and 2015 on September 18, 2013 at the conclusion of the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The FOMC is likely to revise downward its 2013 GDP growth forecast. The new forecast, along with the release of the FOMC’s initial public forecast for the economy, inflation, and the labor market in 2016 (also due on September 18), may help to soothe market fears about the pace of tapering and tightening.

The data in hand for the first two months of the third quarter of 2013 suggest that third quarter GDP is tracking to well under 2%, and may be closer to 1%. The data released thus far for the third quarter of 2013 include:

• Personal consumption expenditures for July;
• Industrial production for July;
• Retail sales for July and August;
• Durable goods shipments and orders for July;
• Vehicle sales for July;
• Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance through the week ending August 24;
• ISM and regional Federal Reserve Manufacturing Indexes for July and August; and
• New and existing home sales for July.

Data due out this week (September 2 – 6, 2013) on vehicle sales, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), merchandise trade, construction spending, factory shipments and inventories for July and August 2013, and, of course, the August employment report (due out on Friday, September 6) will help to further clarify the pace of GDP growth in the current quarter, the rest of 2013, and into 2014.

GDP Overseas

Data released over the past several months suggest that the economies in Europe and China have stabilized. Meanwhile, market participants have increased their GDP growth forecasts for Japan over the past nine months, as Japanese policymakers have ramped up monetary and fiscal policy and embarked on a series of structural reforms aimed at jarring Japan’s economy out of a multi-decade slumber. Our view remains that while the economies in China and Europe have stopped getting worse, it may take several more quarters before they can meaningfully re-accelerate. While growth has picked up in Japan — second quarter GDP growth in Japan was 2.6% — it remains disappointing relative to elevated expectations. In addition, many emerging market nations (about 50% of U.S. exports head to emerging markets), including India, Brazil, and Indonesia are now experiencing growth and inflation scares, and some (Brazil and Indonesia) are raising interest rates to head off inflation. Many of the market participants and Fed policymakers who expect U.S. GDP to accelerate in the second half of 2013 and in 2014 are likely counting on accelerating growth in Europe, China, Japan, and emerging markets to drive U.S. exports higher. But is that enough to boost U.S. GDP growth?

As noted in our Weekly Economic Commentary: Exporting Good Old American Know-How, from August 19, 2013, the United States has run a trade deficit (importing more goods and services from other countries than it exports) since the mid-1970s, and our large deficit on the goods side (around $759 billion in 2012) more than offsets the trade surplus we have on the service side of the ledger (around $213 billion in 2012). Combined, our goods and services trade deficit was $547 billion in 2012, slightly smaller than the $569 billion deficit in 2011. As a result of the slight narrowing of the deficit between 2011 and 2012, net exports contributed 0.1% to the 2.8% gain in GDP in 2012.

Net Exports Typically Do Not Boost U.S. GDP Growth

The infographic on page 2, “Profile of U.S. Exports” (Profile) reveals that over the past 40 years — aside from recessions (when imports fall faster than exports, narrowing the trade deficit) — net exports have never added more than 1.0% to overall GDP growth. Thus, even if the economies of Europe, China, Japan, and emerging markets accelerate sharply in the next few quarters, it is unlikely that net exports will provide a large boost to GDP growth this year.

In theory, an unexpected uptick in economic activity among our largest  export destinations should be a plus for our exports to that region, but in practice, the impact to our trade balance and economy may not immediately reflect the better growth prospects overseas. In addition, exchange rate movements also can influence cross-border trade, but movements often work with a long lag. Since many of our exports do not compete on price, the value of the dollar is not always the best way to gauge the relative strength of our exports to many markets. Generally speaking, U.S. exports compete globally on quality, rather than price.

Export Destinations: Economic Prospects in Canada and Mexico

The Profile details the destinations (trading partners) and mix (goods versus services) of our exports. Fourteen percent of our exports (both goods and services) are bound for the Eurozone, while just 6% head to China. Remarkably, only 5% of our exports go to Japan. Combined, our exports to the Eurozone, Japan, and China account for 25% of our total exports. Closer to home, 16% of our exports head north of the border to Canada, and another 11% head south of the border to Mexico. Thus, our exports to our two closest neighbors (27% of all exports) are larger than our exports to the Eurozone, Japan, and China combined (25%). Accordingly, market participants should probably pay more attention to the economic prospects of Canada and Mexico and a bit less to the prospects of China, the Eurozone, and Japan.

Mix of Goods/Services: Goods Are 70% of All Exports

The Profile also details the goods/services mix of our exports. Currently, goods account for around 70% of all exports, but that varies widely by trading partner. The export mix to Canada and Mexico is skewed toward goods rather than services, which is partially explained by auto production, since auto parts factories and final assembly plants account for such a large portion of trade. Our export mix to the Eurozone, China, and Japan is…well… more mixed. Services, at around 40%, account for more of our trade to the Eurozone and Japan than in our overall trade mix. In China, however, an above-average 78% of our exports are goods. All else being equal, an unexpected and permanent shift higher in economic growth for trading partners like China, the Eurozone, and Japan should boost our exports to those nations over time and, in turn, our GDP. But it is important to note that outside of recessions, net exports rarely add more than 0.5% to GDP growth. So while we spend a great deal of time discussing the health of the economy in China, the Eurozone, Japan, and emerging markets, the economic prospects of our nearest neighbors (Canada and Mexico) have a bigger influence on our overall exports.
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance reference is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

International investing involves special risks, such as currency fluctuation and political instability, and may not be suitable for all investors.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

Markit is a leading, global financial information services company that provides independent data, valuations and trade processing across all asset classes in order to enhance transparency, reduce risk and improve operational efficiency. The Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMIT) is a composite index based on five of the individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders – 0.3, Output – 0.25, Employment – 0.2, Suppliers’ Delivery Times – 0.15, Stocks of Items Purchased – 0.1, with the Delivery Times Index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries. A composite diffusion index is created that monitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas is the oldest executive outplacement firm in the United States. The firm conducts regular surveys and issues reports on the state of the economy, employment, job-seeking, layoffs, and executive compensation.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

Member FINRA/SIPC

Navigating the Markets April 23, 2013

Navigating the Markets

Compass Changes

• ƒUpgraded health care to neutral from negative/neutral
• Upgraded emerging market debt to neutral/positive from neutral
• Upgraded oil commodity from neutral/negative to neutral
• Downgraded precious metals commodities from neutral/positive to neutral
• Downgraded technology from neutral/positive to neutral

Investment Takeaways

• ƒOur near-term stock market view is slightly cautious, given our Base Path expectation for modest single-digit returns in 2013.*
• We continue to favor cyclical sectors over defensives over the balance of the year, but our near-term views are balanced.
• Higher-yielding, fundamentally sound segments of the bond market remain attractive, but low yields and valuations temper our enthusiasm.
• We upgraded our emerging market debt view following under performance during the first quarter.
• We see the oil commodity as near fair value following the latest correction, while deteriorating technicals drive our lowered precious metals view.
• From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 may turn lower over the next few weeks; next support is at 1540, followed by 1500.

Broad Asset Class Views

LPL Financial Research’s views on stocks, bonds, cash, and alternatives are illustrated below. The positions of negative, neutral, or positive are indicated by the solid black compass needle, while an outlined needle shows a previous view.

Equity & Alternative Asset Classes

Maintain Slightly Cautious Stock Market View as S&P 500 Remains Near All-Time Highs

Our near-term stock market view is slightly cautious, given our Base Path expectation for modest single-digit returns in 2013.*
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Our views are generally aligned across market cap, with a slight preference for large and mid caps. In our Base Path scenario in Outlook 2013, we expect the market to favor the stability, lower valuations, and higher yields associated with large caps.
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We maintain a modest preference for growth over value due to growth’s potential to perform well in slow-growth environments, although our conviction has lessened as our sector views have become more balanced.
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Our neutral emerging markets (EM) view reflects higher near-term risks as China implements measures to curb its property markets and has produced uneven growth.
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Our large foreign view is neutral. Although bold policy actions and valuations are supportive, and the outlook in Japan has improved, Europe remains mired in recession and the Eurozone debt crisis is not yet over.
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Fed policy remains supportive of precious metals, but US dollar gains, little inflation pressure, and the rotation into equities have driven a technical breakdown in the gold commodity price.
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Now that the oil commodity has pulled back into the high $80s, we believe it is near fair value.

All performance referenced herein is as of April 16, 2013, unless otherwise noted. * LPL Financial Research provided these forecasts based on: a low-single-digit earnings growth rate supported by modest share buybacks combined with 2% dividend yields and little change in valuations for the S&P 500. Please see our Outlook 2013 for details.

Real Estate/REITs may result in potential illiquidity and there is no assurance the objectives of the program will be attained. The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. International and emerging markets involve special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. The price of small and mid-cap stocks are generally more volatile than large capstocks. Value investments can perform differently from the market as a whole. They can remain undervalued by the market for long periods of time. Precious metal investing is subject to substantial fluctuation and potential for loss. These securities may not be suitable for all investors. Alternative strategies may not be suitable for all investors and should be considered as an investment for the risk capital portion of  the investor’s portfolio. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses. Stock investing may involve risk including loss of principal.

Equity Sectors

More Balanced Sector Mix After Health Care Upgrade to Neutral

We continue to favor cyclical sectors over defensives over the balance of the year, but our near-term views are balanced as we anticipate a modest pullback in the S&P 500.

While we continue to expect a pickup in business spending, our lowered technology view reflects a weaker earnings outlook and deteriorating technicals. Industrials is our favored way to play a potential pickup in business spending.

Our recent decision to lower our materials view reflected the risk to China’s growth and strength in the US dollar amid concerns that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon pare back  stimulus.

Our energy view remains neutral due to our expectation that elevated inventories will prevent a rebound in crude oil prices from current levels in the high $80s.

Our upgraded, neutral health care view reflects our desire to balance out the economic sensitivity of our sector mix, policy clarity, and a strong technical picture.

Our utilities view is modestly negative due to interest rate risk and rich valuations, although our outlook is less negative amid improved technicals.

Our consumer staples view is neutral despite rich valuations due to the potential to benefit from lower commodity prices and the potential for a pullback.

Our financials view is modestly negative. Bank fundamentals have improved some, but the challenging regulatory and interest rate environment persists and loan growth is stalling.

Because of their narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.

Fixed Income

Focus on Higher-Yielding Segments Due to Better Valuation and as Buffer Against Rise in Rates

• A range-bound environment persists in the bond market. Lingering uncertainties augur for a stable rate environment, which favors intermediate bonds that still possess a substantial yield advantage relative to short-term bonds.
• By committing to refrain from raising interest rates until unemployment falls to 6.5%, intermediate maturity bonds may also benefit from Fed policy as investors seek higher yields amid a low-yield world.
• We continue to find municipal bonds among the more attractive high-quality bond options, and valuations remain attractive following a difficult March.

Focus on Higher-Yielding Segments Due to Better Valuation and as Buffer Against Rise in Rates

• We upgrade emerging market debt following underperformance during the first quarter relative to other higher-yielding segments of the bond market, thereby providing an opportunity for investors.
• Higher-yielding, fundamentally sound segments of the bond market such as high-yield bonds, bank loans, and preferred securities remain attractive, but we temper our enthusiasm due to a strong start to 2013. Lower yields and higher valuations augur for lower returns going forward.
• Bank loans remain attractive due to a much narrower yield differential to high-yield bonds.

All bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and are subject to availably and change in price. High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors. Mortgage-backed securities are subject to credit, default risk, prepayment risk that acts much like call risk when you get your principal back sooner than the stated maturity, extension risk, the opposite of prepayment risk, and interest rate risk. International and emerging market investing involves risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) help eliminate inflation risk to your portfolio as the principal is adjusted semiannually for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index – while providing a real rate of return guaranteed by the U.S. government. Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity and redemption features. Foreign Bonds – Hedged: Non-U.S. fixed income securities generally from investment-grade issuers in developed countries, with hedged currency exposure. Foreign Bonds – Unhedged: Non-U.S. fixed income securities normally denominated in major foreign currencies.

DEFINITIONS:

EQUITY AND ALTERNATIVES ASSET CLASSES
Large Growth: Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as Large Cap. Growth is defined based on fast growth (high growth rates for earnings,
sales, book value, and cash flow) and high valuations (high price ratios and low dividend yields).

Large Value: Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as Large Cap. Value is defined based on low valuations (low price ratios and high dividend
yields) and slow growth (low growth rates for earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow).

Mid Growth: The U.S. mid-cap range for market capitalization typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.
Growth is defined based on fast growth (high growth rates for earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow) and high valuations (high price ratios and low dividend yields).

Mid Value: The U.S. Mid Cap range for market capitalization typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market. Value
is defined based on low valuations (low price ratios and high dividend yields) and slow growth (low growth rates for earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow).

Small Growth: Stocks in the bottom 10% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as Small Cap. Growth is defined based on fast growth (high growth rates for earnings,
sales, book value, and cash flow) and high valuations (high price ratios and low dividend yields).

Small Value: Stocks in the bottom 10% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as Small Cap. Value is defined based on low valuations (low price ratios and high
dividend yields) and slow growth (low growth rates for earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow).

U.S. Stocks: Stock of companies domiciled in the U.S.

Large Foreign: Large-cap foreign stocks have market capitalizations greater than $5 billion. The majority of the holdings in the large foreign category are in the MSCI EAFE Index.
Small Foreign: Small-cap foreign stocks typically have market capitalizations of $250M to $1B. The majority of the holdings in the small foreign category are in the MSCI Small Cap EAFE Index.

Emerging Markets: Stocks of a single developing country or a grouping of developing countries. For the most part, these countries are in Eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Latin
America, the Far East and Asia.

REITs: REITs are companies that develop and manage real-estate properties. There are several different types of REITs, including apartment, factory-outlet, health-care, hotel, industrial, mortgage, office, and shopping center REITs. This would also include real-estate operating companies.

Commodities – Industrial Metals: Stocks in companies that mine base metals such as copper, aluminum and iron ore. Also included are the actual metals themselves. Industrial metals
companies are typically based in North America, Australia, or South Africa.

Commodities – Precious Metals: Stocks of companies that do gold- silver-, platinum-, and base-metal-mining. Precious-metals companies are typically based in North America, Australia, or South Africa.

Commodities – Energy: Stocks of companies that focus on integrated energy, oil & gas services, oil & gas exploration and equipment. Public energy companies are typically based in North America, Europe, the UK, and Latin America.

Merger Arbitrage is a hedge fund strategy in which the stocks of two merging companies are simultaneously bought and sold to create a riskless profit. A merger arbitrageur looks at
the risk that the merger deal will not close on time, or at all. Because of this slight uncertainty, the target company’s stock will typically sell at a discount to the price that the combined
company will have when the merger is closed. This discrepancy is the arbitrageur’s profit.

Long/Short is an investment strategy generally associated with hedge funds. It involves buying long equities that are expected to increase in value and selling short equities that are
expected to decrease in value.

EQUITY SECTORS

Materials: Companies that engage in a wide range of commodity-related manufacturing. Included in this sector are companies that manufacture chemicals, construction materials, glass,
paper, forest products and related packaging products, metals, minerals and mining companies, including producers of steel.

Energy: Companies whose businesses are dominated by either of the following activities: The construction or provision of oil rigs, drilling equipment and other energy-related service and equipment, including seismic data collection or the exploration, production, marketing, refining and/or transportation of oil and gas products, coal and consumable fuels.

Industrials: Companies whose businesses: Manufacture and distribute capital goods, including aerospace and defense, construction, engineering and building products, electrical
equipment and industrial machinery; provide commercial services and supplies, including printing, employment, environmental and office services; provide transportation services,
including airlines, couriers, marine, road and rail, and transportation infrastructure.

Consumer Discretionary: Companies that tend to be the most sensitive to economic cycles. Its manufacturing segment includes automotive, household durable goods, textiles and apparel, and leisure equipment. The service segment includes hotels, restaurants and other leisure facilities, media production and services, consumer retailing and services and education services.

Technology: Companies that primarily develop software in various fields such as the Internet, applications, systems and/or database management and companies that provide information technology consulting and services. Technology hardware & equipment include manufacturers and distributors of communications equipment, computers and peripherals, electronic equipment and related instruments, and semiconductor equipment and products.

Financials: Companies involved in activities such as banking, consumer finance, investment banking and brokerage, asset management, insurance and investment, and real estate, including REITs.

Utilities: Companies considered electric, gas or water utilities, or companies that operate as independent producers and/or distributors of power.

Health Care: Companies in two main industry groups: Healthcare equipment and supplies or companies that provide healthcare-related services, including distributors of healthcare
products, providers of basic healthcare services, and owners and operators of healthcare facilities and organizations or companies primarily involved in the research, development,
production and marketing of pharmaceuticals and biotechnology products.

Consumer Staples: Companies whose businesses are less sensitive to economic cycles. It includes manufacturers and distributors of food, beverages and tobacco, and producers of non-durable household goods and personal products. It also includes food and drug retailing companies.

Telecommunications: Companies that provide communications services primarily through a fixed line, cellular, wireless, high bandwidth and/or fiber-optic cable network.

FIXED INCOME

Credit Quality: An individual bond’s credit rating is determined by private independent rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch. Their credit quality designations
range from high (‘AAA’ to ‘AA’) to medium (‘A’ to ‘BBB’) to low (‘BB’, ‘B’, ‘CCC’, ‘CC’ to ‘C’).

Duration: A measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of principal) of a fixed-income investment to a change in interest rates. Duration is expressed as a number of years. Rising
interest rates mean falling bond prices, while declining interest rates mean rising bond prices. The bigger the duration number, the greater the interest-rate risk or reward for bond prices.

Munis – Short-term: Bonds issued by various state and local governments to fund public projects. The income from these bonds is generally free from federal taxes. These bonds generally have maturities of less than three years.

Munis – Intermediate: Bonds issued by various state and local governments to fund public projects. The income from these bonds is generally free from federal taxes. These bonds
generally have maturities of between 3 and 10 years.

Munis – Long-term: Bonds issued by various state and local governments to fund public projects. The income from these bonds is generally free from federal taxes. These bonds generally
have maturities of more than 10 years.

Munis – High-yield: Bonds issued by various state and local governments to fund public projects. The income from these bonds is generally free from federal taxes. These bonds generally
offer higher yields than other types of bonds, but they are also more vulnerable to economic and credit risk. These bonds are rated BB+ and below.
Treasuries: A marketable, fixed-interest U.S. government debt security. Treasury bonds make interest payments semi-annually and the income that holders receive is only taxed at the federal level.

TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities): A special type of Treasury note or bond that offers protection from inflation. Like other Treasuries, an inflation-indexed security pays interest every six months and pays the principal when the security matures. The difference is that the underlying principal is automatically adjusted for inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI).

Mortgage-Backed Securities: A type of asset-backed security that is secured by a mortgage or collection of mortgages. These securities must also be grouped in one of the top two ratings as determined by a accredited credit rating agency, and usually pay periodic payments that are similar to coupon payments. Furthermore, the mortgage must have originated from a regulated and authorized financial institution.

Investment-Grade Corporates: Securities issued by corporations with a credit ratning of BBB- or higher. Bond rating firms, such as Standard & Poor’s, use different designations consisting of upper- and lower-case letters ‘A’ and ‘B’ to identify a bond’s investment-grade credit quality rating. ‘AAA’ and ‘AA’ (high credit quality) and ‘A’ and ‘BBB’ (medium credit quality) are considered investment-grade.

Preferred Stocks: A class of ownership in a corporation that has a higher claim on the assets and earnings than common stock. Preferred stock generally has a dividend that must be paid
out before dividends to common stockholders and the shares usually do not have voting rights.

High-Yield Corporates: Securities issued by corporations with a credit rating of BB+ and below. These bonds generally offer higher yields than investment-grade bonds, but they are also
more vulnerable to economic and credit risk.

Bank Loans: In exchange for their credit risk, these floating-rate bank loans offer interest payments that typically float above a common short-term benchmark such as the London
interbank offered rate, or LIBOR.

Foreign Bonds – Hedged: Non-U.S. fixed income securities generally from investment-grade issuers in developed countries, with hedged currency exposure.

Foreign Bonds – Unhedged: Non-U.S. fixed income securities normally denominated in major foreign currencies.

Emerging Market Debt: The debt of sovereigns, agencies, local issues, and corporations of emerging markets countries and subject to currency risk.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

For the purposes of this publication, intermediate-term bonds have maturities between 3 and
Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Preferred stock investing involves risk, which may include loss of principal.

Distressed investing involves significant risks, including a total loss of capital. The risks associated with distressed investing arise from several factors including: limited diversification,
the use of leverage, limited liquidity, and the possibility that investors may be required to accept cash or securities with a value less than their original investment and/or may be required to accept payment over an extended period of time.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate
market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial is not
an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not FDIC or NCUA/NCUSIF Insured | No Bank or Credit Union Guarantee | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit